2024 Trends: Predicting for Eras, Not Years

For those of us in digital advertising, making predictions for 2024 has an air of Groundhog Day about it. A lot of the trends we’re talking about – attention, cookieless advertising, the metaverse – are the very same topics that were doing the rounds this time last year. It’s deceptive because the industry is, in fact, moving forward. It’s just that change in such a complex world can take a long time to evolve.

It helps if you picture the post-cookie age as similar to that of the much-heralded “year of the mobile” that surfaced back in the mid-noughties. That phrase was bandied about year after year, to the point that it became something of an inside joke.

Much like mobile advertising, the shifts we’re seeing take shape across digital advertising right now can’t be reduced to a year-only timescale. Instead, we find ourselves within an era of transition; one that might be influenced by a range of factors, from tech limitations to advertiser adoption. With that in mind, here are the trends I expect to continue to gain traction in 2024:

A new level of attention maturity: Attention has been the talk of the town in digital media for some years now; but gaps persist around how it is defined and measured. Even with this uncertainty, however, it’s a metric that will continue to command interest next year – as agencies and brands alike seek to flesh out the contours of a new-era attention currency.

Crucially, this involves attaching attention measurement to tangible brand outcomes; so that advertisers can more clearly see the impact of data insights such as eye-tracking or hover rate on audience engagement. This value is amplified once again if the learnings are applied in real-time, to help optimise the performance of live campaigns.

Like other emerging facets of digital advertising, attention still has a way to go before it becomes a refined, industry-standardised tool. But 2024 will nevertheless be a pivotal year, as its influence rapidly expands.

Metaverse advertising in flux: Already attracting over 400 million active users every month, the metaverse holds major promise for advertisers. Yet much of the hype we saw around the time Meta first changed its name in October 2021 – sparking billion-dollar investments from Big Tech – has yet to convert to serious ad dollars. Part of the problem is that the most immersive end of the experience requires consumer buy-in from expensive devices such as VR headsets, AR wristbands or even haptic gloves. These barriers to adoption mean users who are present in the metaverse complain of empty worlds, populated by less-than-appealing designs.

It’s likely the metaverse will continue to linger on the periphery of mainstream ad experiences in 2023; unless there is a breakthrough by way of a cheaper, more accessible way to drive mass-scale uptake. In addition, we need more developers to innovate within this emerging space, in order to create journeys that are truly compelling and unique.

Ad-tech consolidation gains pace: With the phaseout of third-party cookies now imminent for 2024, ad tech providers are starting to cluster around a similar narrative. Cookieless targeting, particularly contextual advertising, combined with attention metrics, is now the go-to standard for a new generation of digital marketers.

It’s a conversation that’s been present for a while now but it will pick up momentum in 2024 – driving consolidation as ad-tech vendors jostle for elbow room in an increasingly crowded space. The players that showcase differentiation, with a clearly articulated USP and proprietary technology that will really rise to the top. These are the companies that will really add value, rather than trying to simply be on top of a trend.

A more sustainable future: With world leaders warning that we are “running out of time” to phase-out fossil fuels and limit global warming to 1.5C, there’s never been a more critical moment to address advertising’s carbon footprint. According to decarbonisation platform Scope3, every ten seconds spent on a website with 18 ad slots generates 200 grams of carbon (the equivalent of 100 grams of coal). And the digital ecosystem as a whole is responsible for 3.5% of all greenhouse gases.

This hefty toll is underscored by a growing wave of consumer pressure holding brands to account over their environmental actions. Heading into 2024, we’ll see more digital brands scrutinise their supply chains in pursuit of ambitious carbon reduction plans. The goal is no longer just to limit emissions, but to proactively cut back waste (for example, by reducing exposure to made-for-advertising websites), drive efficiencies and create bespoke net-zero strategies at every stage of a given campaign.

Also published in: The Drum