PMW Predicts… creators are the new brands

It’s hard to determine exactly which part of performance marketing (if any) hasn’t seen dramatic change this year, but social media and its creators have undoubtedly made an explosive and lasting impact on marketing and its budget split.

“Influencer spend in the US grew around 3.5 times faster than social ad spend in 2023,” says Scott Guthrie, Director General of the Influencer Marketing Trade Body. 

“In the UK we’re seeing influencer marketing increasingly shift to the centre of multi-channel integrated marketing programmes.

“However, these trends don’t guarantee a year of Prosecco and Pringles for our sector. Influencer marketing plays a pivotal role in shaping consumer behaviour. But, that trust is not given. It’s earned.”

Part three of ‘PMW Predicts’ gathers 12 experts in the social and tech sectors to provide an outlook on its platforms, influencers and content creation for the year ahead.

Are creators more important than brands?

The creator economy is “leading the charge in modern marketing”, according to LTK’s VP and Head of Marketing, Rodney Mason.

Influencer marketing has become a mainstay in the marketing mix; so much so that creators have evolved into assets for brands, wielding the power to deliver substantial business impact. 

Robin Ward, Head of Sales at LTK, says: “92% [of brands] are set to elevate their investment in creator marketing in 2024. Notably, 36% of these forward-thinking brands are earmarking at least half of their total digital marketing budget exclusively for creators.

“LTK found that 73% of Gen Z, 68% of Millennials, and 57% of the general population turn to creators for guidance in making purchase decisions. In a noteworthy alignment, brands acknowledge this trust dynamic, with the majority asserting that consumers place the highest trust in creators compared to traditional social media ads and celebrity endorsements.” 

Christopher Douglas, Senior Strategy Manager, US at Billion Dollar Boy (BDB), forecasts creators to become more embedded in brands as creative strategists.

He adds: “Although media planning will remain, we’ll see brands take more risks, pivoting away from highly prescriptive brand-led campaigns and embracing more trend-led campaigns and unconventional partnerships.”

Increased investment into the sector will also heat up the competition between agencies and according to Alex Williamson, BDB’s Global Creative Director, this competition will drive innovation and “agencies will need to prove their depth of understanding of creators”.

Through this, he believes a new type of ‘agency creative’ will emerge, relying on creative thinkers with broader skill sets.

Suzanna Chaplin, CEO at esbconnect questions the very position of brands and influencers: “Are consumers loyal to an influencer or a brand? With many brands understanding that a consumer is loyal to the opinions and brands an influencer recommends, we will see growth in collaboration ranges and more in-depth partnerships.

“But who will stand tall in 2024? Will it be the brand or the influencer?”

Technology and the creative renaissance

Generative AI continues to be the new popular kid, and this won’t change in 2024. But automated technology’s impact on creativity is going to be watched closely as it separates brands and agencies into those that embrace and those that resist AI in creative development.

The new technology will also tighten its grip on influencer marketing as Meta rolls out its AI Personas in the new year. Virtual twins of household names such as Kendall Jenner – named Billie – will shift influence from passive spectatorship to hyper-personalised interactions in ways fans once thought was impossible, explains Rahul Titus, Global Head of Influence at Ogilvy, in its recent report. 

In this advancing environment, the companies with premium creative IP and world class storytelling will become the true drivers of the AI revolution, suggests Bill Stratton, Global Industry GTM Lead, Media, Entertainment, and Advertising at data company Snowflake.

Importantly, he notes that AI will raise, not reduce, the value of world class storytelling and creative IP. 

He says: “The recent writer's strike shed light on this issue and all sides understood that AI will fit into the creative process just like years ago when video editing and animation software enabled new forms and scale around the creative process. 

“Understanding how to effectively utilise AI tools will become a vital skill set for a subset of the creative economy moving forward. Indeed, embracing this new dynamic between humans and advancements in artificial intelligence promises to shape future developments within the realm of creativity itself.”

The success or failure of creative advertising in the digital age is down to targeting, says Aaron Goldman, CMO at Mediaocean.

He says: “The winners are those who segment audiences better, bid the exact right amount for ad space, and track consumers all the way through to purchase. 2024 will be an inflection point where creative takes over and the quality and differentiation of the message will be what decides performance.”

Combining paid social and creators will become increasingly crucial to drive results, reveals Ed East, Group CEO and Co-founder at BDB. He says: “More social platforms will reduce the organic reach of #ad, so paid and creative solutions will be vital to maintaining reach and brands will also explore niche communities further too.”

The platform download

“Go fuck yourself,” said Elon Musk to advertisers on X, formerly Twitter, as he accused them of blackmailing him for suspending advertising on the platform.

This is just one (albeit extreme) example of the turbulence among social platforms, which is in turn reflected in social budgets and adspend. 

Experts weigh in on how social platforms will be affecting performance marketing for 2024.

On the topic of Musk, Sarah Tims, AVP Marketing at LoopMe, expects to see more 'super-apps' similar to WeChat, Gojek, and Grab that are popular in Asia. “We have already seen signs of super-apps in the US,” she says.

“Gartner has predicted that over 50% of the global population will be users of at least one super-app by 2027. For brands, this opens up opportunities for in-app advertising and access to more privacy-compliant user data. Partnering with a super-app can help brands reach new consumers, build loyalty with current ones and diversify their revenue streams by expanding their services with minimal consumer acquisition costs."

Regulation has caused Meta, among other platforms, significant issues this year. Emma Lacey, SVP EMEA at Zefr, discusses the impact of privacy and safety on social media for the next year.

“In 2024 we'll start to see the first tangible effects of newly-passed regulations, such as the UK’s Online Safety Bill. With the introduction of this and similar laws, comes a growing responsibility on social platforms to be transparent in ensuring the safety and suitability of digital content. 

“[The platforms] will need to demonstrate to advertisers that they are working with the right third-party verification partners and harnessing the best technology to provide a safe environment for ad spend. This will ensure brands continue to include social activity in their media plans, because they can be confident ads will appear adjacent to reliable and high-quality content.”

Zarnaz Arlia, CMO at Emplifi, explains the importance of adtech tools during increased privacy changes: “As brands increasingly prioritise privacy in their marketing strategies, social intelligence will become essential for obtaining deeper consumer insights. Utilising social listening tools that offer sentiment analysis, as well as capabilities to track impressions, mentions, and social interactions, provides brands with a comprehensive view of their customers and allows for effective real-time brand reputation management.”

This is good news for adtech partners as the relationship between Big Tech and smaller providers could undergo a real shake-up in 2024 following tectonic shifts in the regulatory landscape and other macroeconomic conditions

Goldman explains: “Meta is making adjustments to EU services following a ruling over data collection policies, and the Digital Markets Act poses additional threats to the way Big Tech companies – or as the European Commission calls them, “Gatekeepers” – operate in the region. 

“In the big picture, this is a win for marketers who will be less reliant on walled gardens to perform the critical functions of ad serving and optimisation across channels. A rising tide of independent ad tech platforms that can offer a more comprehensive and transparent approach to advertising will lift all boats in 2024.” 

Social commerce is gaining momentum

Cementing relationships with consumers via social platforms is getting increasingly competitive, with ever-changing algorithms and a growing pressure for viral content. 

BDB’s Global Effectiveness Director Simon Harwood predicts a scale up in community building tools outside of platforms, including “exclusive live streams, limited edition merch and closed chat spaces”. 

Already popular in APAC, real time social commerce is finally beginning to gain traction, says Tims, as platforms like Instagram, YouTube, Facebook and TikTok are incorporating livestream shopping features. 

Emplifi’s Arlia agrees that 2024 will see social shopping become a crucial element of online commerce strategies as brands aim to streamline the transition from product discovery to purchase. 

She adds: “The key for marketers lies in creating a seamless experience and offering content to inform buying decisions, such as ratings, reviews, and user-generated content (UGC), coupled with an intuitive and effortless in-app shopping experience.” 

Zarina Stanford, CMO at Bazaarvoice, posits that current marketing mixes aren’t aligned with what consumers are looking for, since not enough brands lean into UGC.

She says: “It is becoming a foundational truth in retail that shoppers trust UGC more than content created by brands and retailers. In fact, according to our research, brands and retailers themselves agree that reviews (91%) and customer Q&As (82%) directly impact shopper purchasing decisions. However, content creation budgets are still mostly spent on brand-created content, with 75% of brands and retailers spending over 60% of their budget on this.”

Internal company voices will also increasingly drive external impact. Ogilvy found that nearly nine in 10 (89%) of C-suite marketers recognize the benefits of employee advocacy on platforms such as LinkedIn, but 2024 will bring more B2C brands capitalising on their employees’ influence. 

Voice and agency is being shifted towards the platforms’ users. And as many of the experts have concluded, the outlook for performance marketing across social media “will have to wait and see”.

Also published in: Performance Marketing World